Sectionals: Vin’s seeding projections

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You guys ready for some playoff soccer?

Now that the final regular season games for 2013 are in the books, I’m ready to release my annual seeding projections. As I say every year, I’m almost willing to guarantee that these aren’t 100 percent correct, so don’t go booking any trips quite yet. But I’ve been in a touch with a lot of coaches in the know, and we all seem to be on the same page. (Lakeland coach Tim Hourahan is our favorite bracketologist. I think he’s been locked in a closet with a calculator and a notepad since Friday. Someone might want to check on him…) I would venture to say that these are the most accurate projections that I’ve ever done.

A few important things to note for this year, with the most significant change being the new qualifying standard. Less teams will be in the postseason this year because you need 26 total points to qualify. Teams get four points for a win, two for a tie and none for a loss. Teams also receive two bonus points for playing a team with a winning percentage above .750 and one bonus point for playing a team that is .500 or above. Got it?

What I’ve done here is list each team’s seeding score next to their overall record. The seeding score is determined by adding up their total number of points and dividing it by total games played (which is 16 for most teams). When two teams have the same seeding score, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head matches. If they never played head-to-head, the team with more total bonus points (AKA the more difficult schedule) gets the higher seed.

We all love to speculate, which is why I enjoy doing these projections to get some excitement going before the playoffs, but the official seeds will be out on Wednesday. As soon as I get my hands on those, I’ll be tweeting and posting like a mad man. Here goes nothing…

CLASS AA PROJECTIONS
1. Arlington (15-0-1) … 4.6875 (wins tiebreaker over Mamaroneck for having more bonus points)
2. Mamaroneck (16-0) … 4.6875
3. Yorktown (14-2) … 4.0625
4. John Jay-East Fishkill (12-4) … 3.8125 (wins tiebreaker over Mahopac for two head-to-head wins)
5. Mahopac (10-4-2) … 3.8125
6. Spring Valley (13-3) … 3.5625
7. Fox Lane (11-4-1) … 3.5
8. Ketcham (10-5) … 3.47
9. Scarsdale (9-5-2) … 3.4375
10. North Rockland (10-5-1) … 3.25
11. Port Chester (9-6-1) … 3.19 (wins tiebreaker over WP for head-to-head win)
12. White Plains (9-6-1) … 3.19
13. Greeley (7-5-4) … 3.0625
14. Carmel (8-8) … 3.0
15. Ossining (5-10-1) … 2.48
16. Ramapo (7-8-1) … 2.4375
17. Suffern (6-9-1) … 2.25

Projected outbracket game(s): No. 17 Suffern at No. 16 Ramapo

Projected first round games: Suffern-Ramapo winner at No. 1 Arlington; No. 15 Ossining at No. 2 Mamaroneck; No. 14 Carmel at No. 3 Yorktown; No. 13 Greeley at No. 4 John Jay-EF; No. 12 White Plains at No. 5 Mahopac; No. 11 Port Chester at No. 6 Spring Valley; No. 10 North Rockland at No. 7 Fox Lane; No. 9 Scarsdale at No. 8 Ketcham

CLASS A PROJECTIONS
1. Byram Hills (14-1-1) … 4.5
2. Lakeland (13-3)… 3.875 (wins tiebreaker over PR for head-to-head win)
3. Pearl River (11-3-2)… 3.875
4. Pelham (10-5-1) … 3.625
5. Edgemont (11-4) … 3.60
6. Keio (10-6) … 3.4375 (wins tiebreaker over TZ for having more bonus points)
7. Tappan Zee (11-3-2)… 3.4375
8. Nyack (10-6)… 3.06
9. Eastchester (9-7)… 3.0
10. Brewster (8-7-1) … 2.75
11. Sleepy Hollow (8-7-1) … 2.875
12. Riverside (6-8-2) … 2.68
13. Lourdes (6-9-1) … 2.43 (wins tiebreaker over Peekskill for having more bonus points)
14. Peekskill (7-8-2) … 2.43
15. Yonkers (8-7-1)… 2.375
16. Somers (5-11) … 2.26
17. John Jay (4-11-1) … 2.18 (wins tiebreaker over Hen Hud for having more bonus points)
18. Hen Hud (5-9-1) … 2.18
19. Beacon (4-11-1) … 2.06
20. Rye (4-11-1) … 1.93
21. Saunders (6-10) … 1.825
22. Harrison (4-12) … 1.81
23. Ardsley (3-10-2) … 1.73

 

Projected outbracket game(s): No. 23 Ardsley at No. 10 Brewster; No. 22 Harrison at No. 11 Sleepy Hollow; No. 21 Saunders at No. 12 Riverside; No. 20 Rye at No. 13 Lourdes; No. 19 Beacon at No. 14 Peekskill; No. 18 Hen Hud at No. 15 Yonkers; No. 17 John Jay at No. 16 Somers

Projected first round games: John Jay-Somers winner at No. 1 Byram Hills; Hen Hud-Yonkers winner at No. 2 Lakeland; Beacon-Peekskill winner at No. 3 Pearl River; Lourdes-Rye winner at No. 4 Pelham; Riverside-Saunders winner at No. 5 Edgemont; Sleepy Hollow-Harrison winner at No. 6 Keio; Brewster-Ardsley winner at No. 7 Tappan Zee; No. 9 Eastchester at No. 8 Nyack

CLASS B PROJECTIONS
1. Irvington (11-1-4) … 3.8125
2. Bronxville (12-3-1) … 3.75
3. Blind Brook (11-4-1) … 3.625
4. North Salem (12-4) … 3.5625
5. Valhalla (11-3-2) … 3.5 (wins tiebreaker for head-to-head win over Briarcliff)
6. Briarcliff (11-4-1) … 3.5
7. Westlake (11-4-1) … 3.3125 (wins tiebreaker over Woodlands for having more bonus points)
8. Woodlands (12-4) … 3.3125
9. Hastings (10-6) … 3.0625
10. Rye Neck (7-6-3) … 2.6875
11. Dobbs Ferry (6-8-2) … 2.5
12. Pawling (4-8-3) … 2.1333
13. YMA (6-10) … 1.9375
14. Putnam Valley (4-10-2) … 1.6875

Projected first round games (no outbracket): No. 1 Irvington, bye; No. 2 Bronxville, bye; No. 14 Putnam Valley at No. 3 Blind Brook; No. 13 YMA at No. 4 North Salem; No. 12 Pawling at No. 5 Valhalla; No. 11 Dobbs Ferry at No. 6 Briarcliff; No. 10 Rye Neck at No. 7 Westlake; No. 9 Hastings at No. 8 Woodlands

CLASS C PROJECTIONS (No qualifying standards here. All four teams make it.)
1. Haldane
2. Solomon Schechter
3. Hamilton
4. Tuckahoe

IN CASE THIS ISN’T ENOUGH FOR YOU, CHECK BACK TOMORROW FOR MY LATEST LOHUD POWER RANKINGS!

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About Author

VINCENT Z. MERCOGLIANO has been with The Journal News and LoHud.com since March 2010. He graduated from New Rochelle High School in 2005 and from Hofstra University in 2009 with a degree in broadcast journalism. He currently covers boys soccer, wrestling and baseball, while assisting with LoHud's Yankees coverage.

15 Comments

  1. Vincent Mercogliano on

    Bobby Charlton,
    Good call. I just went over it with Timmy again and Ardsley is out. That means no outbracket game for Sleepy.

  2. Eric Petrone - Ardsley Boys Soccer on

    Hey Vinny, we have 30 points 16 bonus points…. are you sure we’re out? Who should I be calling?

  3. Vincent Mercogliano on

    Eric,
    Thanks for the call. Just spoke to Timmy again and we cleared everything up. There has been a bit of shuffling, but we think this is right now. Ardsley is IN. Apologies to any Panthers who we scared for a minute.

  4. Hastings tied Irvington twice (3-3, 2-2), so how can they be 10-6? Shouldn’t they be 10-4-2? The extra points might change their seed.

  5. I believe Rob is correct.. Yorktown is a Class A school this year.. not AA.. I think they were AA last year but enrollment dropped.. can you check this? that would change up both AA and A brackets..

  6. Vincent Mercogliano on

    Guys,
    The number listed in the BOCES booklet for Yorktown is wrong. The link that “Soccer” posted is right. Yorktown is an AA school and the projections stay the same.

  7. @AM – i don’t follow Albertus, but from a quick search, I saw that they were 3-11 toward the end of the season. So they may not have had the minimum 26 points to qualify for sectional play